sábado, 30 de junio de 2012

Romney se concentra en la recaudación de fondos



Con el objetivo de superar la recaudación de Obama por segundo mes consecutivo, el Gobernador Romney está dedicando estas últimas horas de junio a reunir dólares. Ayer se hizo con 1.4 millones en solo dos horas al Oeste de Nueva York:
Presumptive Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney swooped into North Buffalo late Friday, collecting $1.4 million from well-heeled supporters.

(...) About 200 donors attended a general reception for Romney at the Historical Society at $2,500 per person and $5,000 for a picture with Romney, and then most of them paid $10,000 each to get into another question-and-answer session, about five blocks away at the Meadow Road home of Anthony Gioia, a Buffalo businessman. Gioia's home was the only place that the media or the protesters even got a glimpse of the former Massachusetts' governor.
Poco antes, asistió a un acto con Donald Trump en Manhattan, donde cada asistente pagó 50,000 dólares por cenar con el candidato. Recaudó 2.5 millones.

Además, en las 24 horas posteriores al fallo del Tribunal Supremo sobre el ObamaCare, ha recaudado 4.6 millones por internet de 47,000 pequeñas donaciones individuales, que no son su punto fuerte.

Obama visita los incendios de Colorado

El Presidente Obama visitó ayer las zonas evacuadas a causa de fuertes incendios en las afueras de Colorado Springs y declaró la situación de catástrofe para el estado de Colorado, que permite transferir fondos federales a las autoridades locales. Y es que estamos hablando de 9 votos electorales.

Esto me recuerda a una escena de la película 'El candidato' (1972) de Michael Ritchie. Cuando el Senador Crocker Jarmon se presenta en helicóptero en el lugar de un incendio para asegurar a los reporteros que utilizará su posición y su influencia en Washington para conseguir ayudas para las víctimas. Son las ventajas del incumbent.



viernes, 29 de junio de 2012

"Shame On You"

En este anuncio que se emitirá en Ohio, Boston se defiende de la publicidad negativa cuestionando la veracidad de los ataques de Obama. Estrella invitada: Hillary Clinton.

NARRADOR: "Los ataques de Barack Obama contra Mitt Romney: símplemente no son ciertos. The Washington Post dice, 'A casi todos los niveles, este anuncio es engañoso, injusto y falso.' Pero ese es Barack Obama. También atacó a Hillary Clinton con mentiras salvajes."

HILLARY CLINTON (en 2008): "(Obama) Continúa gastando millones de dólares perpetuando falsedades."

NARRADOR: "Mitt Romney tiene un plan para poner a América a trabajar. ¿Barack Obama? El peor historial de empleos desde la Depresión.

HILLARY CLINTON (2008): "Debería darte vergüenza, Barack Obama."

Bobby Jindal reacciona a la decisión del TS en Fox News

En una entrevista a Fox News anoche, el Gobernador Bobby Jindal confirmó que no implementará el ObamaCare en el estado de Louisiana, que no establecerá un mercado de seguros estatal tal y como estipula el ObamaCare, y dejará que sea el gobierno federal el que lo establezca y lo opere.

Por qué Romney escogerá a Bobby Jindal



Se acerca la hora de conocer quién acompañará a Mitt Romney en la carrera presidencial. La liebre puede saltar en cualquier momento en las próximas seis semanas. John Kerry presentó a John Edwards un 6 de julio. John McCain presentó a Sarah Palin un 29 de agosto. Lo más probable es que Romney no se adelante tanto como Kerry ni espere tanto como McCain.

¿A quién va a elegir?

Si vais a apostar, supongo que lo más prudente es hacerlo por el Senador Rob Portman, de Ohio. Si nos fijamos en los factores que históricamente han tenido más peso en la decisión, Portman ofrece la mejor combinación de dos de ellos, experiencia (Gabinete, Cámara, Senado) y mapa electoral (los 18 votos electorales de Ohio). Por si fuera poco, no es de cualquier parte de Ohio; es de Cincinnati, el corazón del antiguo establishment republicano que ha dado cinco Presidentes: William Henry Harrison, Ulysses Grant, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison y William Howard Taft.

Otra apuesta sin riesgo es Tim Pawlenty. Al fin y al cabo es de Minnesota y ese estado en los últimos años se ha especializado en dar Vicepresidentes a la nación (Humphrey, Mondale). Suena más que nadie en las últimas dos semanas, está omnipresente en la campaña de Romney, y dicen que tiene química con el candidato. El año pasado montó su propia campaña presidencial y supo reunir un buen equipo y convencer a algunos recaudadores de peso, como el banquero William Strong, de Chicago. No cometió errores graves y se mostró disciplinado. Pero no podemos olvidar que tuvo dificultades para conectar con los votantes y fue derrotado por una candidata menor, Michele Bachmann, en los preliminares del Caucus de Iowa.

El gran golpe de efecto sería Marco Rubio. Si Boston cree que ha alcanzado su techo en voto blanco y que lo que necesita es un pequeño avance en el voto hispano al tiempo que asegurar la motivación de las bases, el Senador de Florida parece el hombre que buscan. No sería una sorpresa si contamos las veces que Romney ha citado a Rubio en campaña, más que a ningún otro de los potenciales Vicepresidentes. Sí chocaría, sin embargo, con la extrema cautela y el miedo al riesgo que caracteriza a todas las decisiones de Romney.

De John Thune se está hablando poco. Yo no tengo duda de que está siendo considerado porque no olvido que el posible rival que más miedo causaba entre los asesores de Romney a comienzos de 2011 no era Mitch Daniels, sino John Thune. Lo veían como el paquete completo (discurso pragmático, base evangélica, reconocimiento en Iowa, fotogenia, dinero). Todavía creen en Boston que su decisión de no presentarse fue la más importante del año pre-electoral.

Cuando George Bush eligió al joven y rubio Dan Quayle en 1988, su asesor de medios e imagen, Roger Ailes, creía que su sex appeal provocaría que las mujeres de mediana edad se rasgaran sus vestidos. Pues para seducir a esas mujeres blancas cuarentonas, que pueden tener la llave de la Casa Blanca visto el mal rendimiento de Obama con los hombres blancos, nadie mejor que Thune. Aunque ahondando más en los factores triviales, Thune es demasiado alto y al nominado no suele gustarle que le hagan sombra. Ahora hablando en serio, Thune permite explorar la ruta del Medio Oeste y no altera el discurso.

Pensarán en Paul Ryan si quieren enfocar la campaña en la crisis de la deuda y la política fiscal. En el Senador Jon Kyl, de Arizona, si temen que la política exterior dé algún susto de aquí a noviembre. Si creen que Virginia tiene las llaves del reino y no las encuentran, pueden pedir ayuda a Bob McDonnell. Y si lo que buscan es imprimirle a la campaña un carácter más combativo, nadie mejor que Chris Christie.

Razones hay para poder apostar por cualquiera de ellos, pero yo apuesto por Bobby Jindal. Para empezar, su hoja de servicios impresiona. Licenciado en Oxford (en política sanitaria, ¿os suena?), ministro de sanidad de Louisiana a los 25 años, 7 años de experiencia en Washington DC en cargos ejecutivos (Departamento de Sanidad) y electos (Cámara de Representantes), Gobernador a los 36 años, reelegido el año pasado para un segundo mandato con el 66% de los votos (el segundo republicano en cien años en Louisiana). Y todo eso con solo 41 años.

Es un adelantado a la nueva generación de Gobernadores republicanos entre los que destacan hoy Chris Christie y Scott Walker. Antes de que estos llamaran nuestra atención, Jindal ya llevaba la voz cantante en los esfuerzos reformistas a nivel estatal en educación, sindicatos y asistencia sanitaria. Tiene el respeto de las élites intelectuales y también el apoyo de los grupos que movilizan a los votantes conservadores en las batallas sociales y fiscales. La Asociación Nacional del Rifle (NRA) dice que ningún otro Gobernador ha hecho más por proteger la Segunda Enmienda (ver el Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act) . El National Right to Life Committee le otorga una valoración del 100%. Y ha firmado el recorte más grande del impuesto sobre la renta en la historia de Louisiana.

Aunque su selección no sirva para atar ningún estado competitivo de forma directa, ofrece ventajas globales que pueden concretarse en votos electorales. Serviría para combatir la idea extendida de que el GOP es esencialmente un partido de hombres blancos y de cierta edad, y para descargar la conciencia de los que se sientan culpables por votar en contra de un Presidente mulato. Aunque los asiático-americanos son solo el 3% del electorado, Jindal, hijo de inmigrantes indios que llegaron a Estados Unidos seis meses antes de su nacimiento, puede ser un portavoz sensible y autorizado en el debate migratorio. Y apostar por un ticket formado por dos Gobernadores (el primero en 64 años) puede contribuir a programar una campaña orientada hacia los resultados y la gestión, más que a la ideología, y ayudar así con los votantes pragmáticos que decidirán la elección.

Finalmente, está la recaudación de fondos. Es sabido que Team Romney quiere utilizar el anuncio de la incorporación del VP al ticket para dar un nuevo impulso a las donaciones. Con Jindal, ese impulso lo tiene asegurado. Las elecciones estatales en Louisiana no solían ser de más de 5 millones de dólares recaudados por cada candidato, hasta que Jindal en su campaña de 2007 fue capaz de recaudar 14 millones, doblando la recaudación de su rival demócrata. En 2011 reunió otros 15 millones para la reelección, de los cuales un 30% llegó de otros estados, una prueba de que tiene un gran seguimiento entre los republicanos de fuera de Louisiana. Además, se aseguró medio millón de dólares en contribuciones de la industria del gas y el petróleo, muy cercana siempre a los gobernadores de los estados del Golfo de México.

El entusiasmo que generaría en las bases ya sería un estímulo para los donantes en general, pero en concreto multiplicaría las pequeñas donaciones en los estados del Sur, un importante añadido a la operación recaudatoria de Romney, e involucraría más a una de las industrias nacionales más generosas en contribuciones -porque las grandes donaciones políticas no son más que un intento por asegurarse influencia, y tener ya la certeza de que alguien con un amplio conocimiento de tus intereses ocupará una posición de máxima influencia sobre el (posible futuro) Presidente, facilita las cosas.

Rubio también ofrece casi todo esto pero su selección parecería más oportunista. Creo que Romney se decidirá por Bobby Jindal, y la decisión de ayer del Tribunal Supremo ratifica mi intuición porque entre los candidatos no hay mayor experto que Jindal en la defensa de una política sanitaria conservadora.

Sobre la decisión del ObamaCare y las elecciones

- It's all up to the voters now (RealClearPolitics)

- Did Obama just get his mojo back? (Slate.com)

- Roberts to the rescue for Romney (The Washington Times)

- Now can we start talking about the law? (The New Republic)

- Court ruling boosts Romney's coffers, repeal message (RealClearPolitics)

Romney recauda 3.2 millones por internet en las 8 horas posteriores a la decisión del TS

POLITICO.com:
The Romney campaign has raised $3.2 million online since the Supreme Court ruled to uphold the Affordable Care Act, a Romney aide tells me.

The news here is that Romney's tapping into conservative small-donor enthusiasm -- he had clocked multi-million-dollar days before, but not from the GOP rank and file. He's had over 30,000 individual donors so far.

jueves, 28 de junio de 2012

"Day One, Job One: #FullRepeal"

Boston ha reaccionado a la decisión del Tribunal Supremo con un web ad que deja clara su táctica: convertir la elección del 6 de noviembre en un referéndum sobre el ObamaCare.

Romney ha recaudado 1.5 millones de 13,500 donaciones desde el fallo sobre el ObamaCare

Lo cuenta en twitter su portavoz, Andrea Saul:


$1.5 million, 13,500+ donations for #FullRepeal #Mitt2012

Obama: no podemos volver a pelear las batallas de hace dos años

Romney: si queremos reemplazar el ObamaCare, tenemos que reemplazar a Obama

El Tribunal Supremo ratifica el ObamaCare

 Associated Press:
The Supreme Court on Thursday upheld the individual insurance requirement at the heart of President Barack Obama's historic health care overhaul.

The decision means the huge overhaul, still only partly in effect, will proceed and pick up momentum over the next several years, affecting the way that countless Americans receive and pay for their personal medical care. The ruling also hands Obama a campaign-season victory in rejecting arguments that Congress went too far in requiring most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty.

Breaking with the court's other conservative justices, Chief Justice John Roberts announced the judgment that allows the law to go forward with its aim of covering more than 30 million uninsured Americans.

The justices rejected two of the administration's three arguments in support of the insurance requirement. But the court said the mandate can be construed as a tax. "Because the Constitution permits such a tax, it is not our role to forbid it, or to pass upon its wisdom or fairness," Roberts said.

The court found problems with the law's expansion of Medicaid, but even there said the expansion could proceed as long as the federal government does not threaten to withhold states' entire Medicaid allotment if they don't take part in the law's extension.

The court's four liberal justices, Stephen Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, joined Roberts in the outcome.

Justices Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas dissented.
Todos los ojos estaban puestos en el Juez Anthony Kennedy y al final, contra pronóstico, el "traidor" ha sido John Roberts.

¿La mayor pesadilla de los demócratas?



En The Daily Beast, Michael Medved apuesta por Marco Rubio para running-mate de Romney:

The ideal running mate for Mitt Romney would make three simultaneous contributions to the Republican ticket:
1. Reassuring the general public that he (or she) is competent, scandal free, and ready to assume the daunting responsibilities of the presidency;
2. Inspiring the conservative base and provoking the sort of ecstatic enthusiasm that the presidential nominee might not generate on his own;
3. Freshening and broadening the Republican brand by refuting Democratic claims that the GOP remains a country-club party of rich, old, white males.

The third goal looms as especially important in 2012, with the Obama reelection team determined to stigmatize Republicans as incurably racist and hopelessly out of touch. According to anonymous but frequently quoted sources in the president’s campaign, his strategists have mostly given up on winning over white males: last time, after all, they lost pale-faced Anglo guys to John McCain by a landslide of 16 points (57 to 41 percent). While white voters (male and female) composed an overwhelming 74 percent of the electorate in 2008’s historic election, and went for McCain-Palin by a solid margin of 55 to 43 percent, Obama-Biden still managed to sweep to White House on the strength of commanding margins from the one quarter of the voting public identified as nonwhite or Latino. In November, the Obama strategy aims to rebuild those lopsided majorities among people of color while simultaneously making major inroads among white voters who also happen to be young, gay, or single females.
No one in the Romney camp discounts the potential of this Democratic plan and their fears of a reassembled “minority coalition” feed frequent speculation over an “unconventional” GOP choice for vice president. According to this logic, by selecting a Latino, black, or female running mate, the Republican nominee could limit the president’s huge advantage among one of his most important target groups while sending powerful messages to the rest of the country that today’s GOP rejected the obnoxious idea of a political party drawing nearly all its support from the nation’s white majority.
(...) The shortcomings of each of the other prominent contenders should drive Governor Romney back to the one potential candidate who could conceivably satisfy all three goals of the perfect vice presidential nominee: Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.
No one could generate more exhilaration on the part of the party’s conservative base since Rubio’s election in 2010 represented the most celebrated of all victories for the Tea Party movement.
At the same time, Rubio possesses an utterly unique ability to allay fears that he’s not ready for prime time because he’s been a darling of the national media for more than two years, with at least as much television exposure over that period as any other member of the Senate. He won election to the Florida legislature at age 28 and took over as the most important leader of that body–speaker of the House–seven years later.
Most importantly, he wouldn’t receive the sort of grilling and hazing that Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle endured because his nomination would in no sense count as a surprise: for more than a year he’s been prominently considered a lively vice-presidential possibility. No political journalist in any corner of the country would feel shocked if Romney chose Rubio, nor would they need to start digging for information on an out-of-nowhere choice, asking themselves “Marco who?”
Senator Rubio, in short, has already been vetted, with the brutal, three-way battle for his Florida Senate seat drawing intense scrutiny from national as well as local reporters, resulting in microscopic examination of a series of potential scandals. Yes, the Rubios compiled an imperfect record in their handling of money, with unpaid student loans, a shared second home that barely escaped foreclosure, and inappropriate (and now fully repaid) charges on a Republican Party credit card during his service as state House speaker. None of these foibles gained traction during his Senate campaign, and he explains them in some detail in his endearing new bestseller, An American Son. In fact, he comes across as a more sympathetic everyman as a result of his past struggles: no one could claim that Senator Rubio, whose mother worked as a maid and whose father toiled as a bartender, counted as out-of-touch with the challenges of ordinary citizens.
And as to the senator’s historic status as the first Latino on a national ticket, the press would no doubt make much of that distinction for weeks after his selection, but no one should expect an instantaneous edge with Hispanic voters. The real importance of Rubio’s background as a 41-year-old son of Cuban immigrants amounts to a decisive alteration in the GOP image at the very moment that Democrats seek to characterize the opposition party as an exclusive club of rich old white guys. As much as his Spanish fluency and his inspiring up-from-the-bottom personal narrative, Rubio’s age would give Democrats fits. He’s a full decade younger than Obama, and 29 years younger than Joe Biden; in fact, Biden won election to the U.S. Senate when Marco Rubio was only one year old.
Any Republican who doesn’t relish the prospect of a Rubio-Biden televised debate hasn’t watched the Florida senator in his masterful handling of even the most contentious media interviews.
As a meticulous, methodical, congenitally cautious businessman, Mitt Romney will analyze every aspect of his vice presidential choice and almost certainly avoid the sort of Hail Mary play that John McCain tried with his nomination of Sarah Palin. Romney will appropriately attempt to balance competing needs to impress pundits with a responsible, seasoned selection, to rally the conservative faithful with a thrilling true-believer and, if at all possible, to broaden the party’s base and to shatter hostile stereotypes.
For 2012, Senator Marco Rubio presents an unprecedented opportunity to satisfy all three demands, at a rare moment when the most reassuring candidate could also count as the most exciting.
Mañana plantearé mi caso sobre quién creo que será el elegido por Romney.

"Briefcase"

Priorities USA Action, el Super PAC de Obama, sigue atacando el puente fuerte de Romney: su experiencia en los negocios.

NARRADOR: "Mitt Romney, el hombre de negocios. Echad un vistazo a su historial. Romney compró compañías, las ahogó en deudas. Muchas quebraron. Miles de trabajadores perdieron sus empleos, prestaciones y pensiones. Pero de cada compañía que dejó por los suelos, Romney hizo una media de 92 millones de dólares en beneficios. ¿Ahora dice que su experiencia en los negocios haría de él un buen Presidente? Si Romney gana, la clase media pierde."

Obama y Romney avanzan sus reacciones al fallo sobre el ObamaCare



USA Today:
Listen closely and you can hear President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney hone their health care lines in anticipation of Thursday's Supreme Court ruling.

(...) Last night in Miami, Obama told donors that "you can decide whether it makes sense, as Mr. Romney wants to do, to roll back the reforms that we put in place that prevent insurance companies from discriminating against people who are sick."
While not specifically citing the Supreme Court, Obama also told backers that "I believe health reform was the right thing to do," and provided an impassioned defense of the law he signed in 2010.

"I believe it was right to make sure that over 3 million young people can stay on their parent's health insurance plan," Obama said. "I believe it was right to provide more discounts for seniors on their prescription drugs.

"I believe it was right to make sure that everybody in this country gets decent health care and is not bankrupt when they get sick," he added. "That's what I believe. But it's up to you. You decide."

Meanwhile, campaigning in Virginia, Romney told supporters that, whatever the justices rule, they can provide the coup de grace to "Obamacare" after the elections.

"As you know, the Supreme Court is going to be dealing with whether or not Obamacare is constitutional," Romney said.

He added:
"If it's not -- if Obamacare is not deemed constitutional -- then the first three and a half years of this president's term will have been wasted on something that does not help the American people.
If it is deemed to stand, then I'll tell you one thing, we're going to have to have a president, and I'm that one, that's going to get rid of Obamacare and we're going to stop it on day one. What we're witnessing is a failure of the president's policies."
Expect to hear similar comments in the days ahead, adjusted to reflect whatever the court decides
Se espera que el Tribunal Supremo anuncie su decisión a las 9 a.m. de hoy.

Poco entusiasmo por votar entre los hispanos y los jóvenes

To measure enthusiasm, the pollsters asked respondents to say how interested they are in this November’s contest, on a scale of one to 10. Adding up the 8s, 9s, and 10s gives a good measure of who the most likely voters will be this fall.

Two-thirds – 66 percent – of Latinos put themselves in this high-interest category. Last month, it was 68 percent. That’s much lower than the average of 80 percent in this poll for all adults.

It’s particularly problematic for Obama’s re-election chances, considering some of the highest-interest groups are ones likely to vote for Romney – Tea Party supporters (89 percent), McCain 2008 voters (88 percent), conservatives (84 percent), those 65 and older (83 percent), Republicans (83 percent), and whites (81 percent).

Several key Obama voting groups come in above 80 percent – post-grads (87 percent), urban voters (86 percent), college-educated women (84 percent), Democrats (83 percent), liberals (83 percent), Obama 2008 voters (83 percent), African Americans (81 percent).

But Hispanics and young voters, two key pieces of the puzzle, see a big drop off. Young voters are even lower than Latinos, at just 61 percent.

Consider that in July 2008, four-out-of-five Hispanics – 80 percent – were in the high-interest range. That rose to 100 percent by November, with 92 percent saying they were a 9 or 10.

In this poll, just 52 percent of Latinos said they were a 9 or 10, below the 68 percent of all respondents. In July 2008, 64 percent of Hispanics said they were 9s and 10s.

Romney en Sterling, Virginia

Sterling no fue elegida al azar por Romney. Se encuentra en el disputado Norte de Virginia, en el área metropolitana de Washington, DC. Concretamente, pertenece al condado de Loudon, que Obama ganó con el 54% de los votos en 2008 pero que cuatro años antes votó en un 56% por Bush.

Biden en Dubuque, Iowa

El Vicepresidente Joe Biden está recorriendo Iowa en autobús. Está en el sitio adecuado si contempla una candidatura presidencial en el futuro, aunque su misión ahora es hacer campaña por la reelección de Obama, al que las actividades propias de la Casa Blanca no le permiten todavía volcarse de lleno en la campaña.

miércoles, 27 de junio de 2012

Romney y Christie, juntos





Mitt Romney y Chris Christie fueron pillados ayer saliendo por separado por la puerta de atrás del Hotel Renaissance de Woodbridge, en New Jersey. Pero tranquilos, no hay nada. Solo era una recaudación de fondos.

Por qué el GOP eligió el condado de Hillsborough para su convención



National Journal:

Welcome to the molten core of the political universe, the hottest battleground in the biggest battleground state. Since 1960, Hillsborough County has called every single presidential election except for one—and there’s no reason to think that voters here won’t do it again.
Look around this county of 1.2 million and you’ll find a mash-up of past and future: a solidly Democratic city bracketed by Republican-leaning suburbs; strawberry fields, ranch-style homes, and gentrified urban neighborhoods; Puerto Ricans, Cuban-Americans, African-Americans, Midwestern retirees, college kids, active military, and young families; the brick and wrought iron of historic Ybor City, and the stucco and terra-cotta of the Sun City Center senior community.
The county boasts the nation’s seventh-largest seaport, the fourth-largest zoo, three major-league sports teams, and an annual festival honoring pirate invasions of the 18th and 19th centuries. It sits at the intersection of Interstate 75, which traverses the United States from north to south, and I-4, which bisects Florida from east to west. This is holy ground for pollsters and advertisers scouting a cross section of America.
“To me, it’s the linchpin,” said Peter Hart, a veteran Democratic pollster who has overseen dozens of focus groups in the county, including one last month that analyzed Republicans’ views of presumptive presidential nominee Mitt Romney. “If you want to understand the swings in the electorate, you are likely to find them in Hillsborough County. It tends to be a good mirror.”
Hillsborough was a Democratic bastion back in the 1970s, but, like other parts of Florida and the South, it has been trending Republican for years—even though the Democratic Party has a 50,000-vote edge in the county. The last time Hillsborough voted for a Democratic presidential nominee was for Bill Clinton in 1996. Before that it was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Five out of the seven county commissioners are Republicans; so are the property appraiser, the tax collector, the state attorney, the elections supervisor, and the sheriff.
In 2008, Hillsborough became the only Florida county that had backed Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 to flip to Barack Obama. A surge of minority voters, young people, and independents helped Obama wring 68,000 more votes out of Hillsborough than John Kerry had, propelling him to a 7-point victory over Republican nominee John McCain in the county.
Was it a fluke? Or was it the start of something big?
Democrats are banking on the latter, pointing to demographic trends here and throughout the country that are pumping up the share of the electorate that isn’t white and that leans their way. Republicans prefer to think of 2008 as an anomaly and Obama as a one-hit wonder, a history-making candidate at a time when the stars and planets over Hillsborough were aligned just right.
County Republican Chairman Art Wood goes so far as to call Hillsborough’s improbable support for Obama in 2008 his “personal Masada,” referring to the Roman siege on an Israeli mountaintop that led the Jewish rebels to commit mass suicide. “I was deeply depressed by the outcome in 2008, and I will use it as a rallying point in 2012,” he said. “That’s not going to happen again.”
To ensure that it doesn’t, the GOP picked Tampa to host its 2012 nominating convention. Pumping millions of dollars into the local economy isn’t a bad way to remind voters that you’re on their side. In a close election, a postconvention boost in central Florida may help put Romney over the top. And it could be that tight. The campaign here will pit Obama’s organizational power and his capacity to take advantage of the region’s shifting demographics against Romney’s message of fiscal prudence, backed by the state’s all-powerful GOP establishment, and played against the backdrop of a still-sputtering local economy.
To understand the politics of Hillsborough County is to understand migration patterns in Florida, which unfolded along the state’s major highways. Liberal Northeasterners headed south on I-95 to Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties, turning South Florida into a Democratic stronghold, while folks from Michigan and Ohio took I-75 to Florida’s west coast. The influx bestowed on Hillsborough County a Midwestern sensibility that’s more practical than ideological.
(...) How closely divided is Hillsborough? Of the 1.95 million votes cast in presidential elections since 1992, Republican nominees won only about 14,000 more than Democratic nominees. Another nugget dug up by Schale, the Democratic strategist: The outcome in the Tampa Bay market has run within 2 percentage points of the statewide result in every presidential election since 1992.
(...) [Republican Strategist Adam] Goodman called the GOP’s selection of Hillsborough to host the national convention “huge” and said that the publicity surrounding the four-day event could easily boost Romney’s popularity enough to make a difference in November. But there is little evidence that the location of a convention translates into a win; in fact, the last four Republican nominees all lost the states that hosted the national conventions: California in 1996, Pennsylvania in 2000, New York in 2004, and Minnesota in 2008. Eric Ostermeier, a research associate at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs, noted on the school’s website that over the past half-century, there was only one instance in which a state hosting the Republican convention flipped after voting for the Democratic nominee four years earlier.
That was in 1968, when Richard Nixon won Florida.

Obama prepara una gira de dos días por el Medio Oeste



The Hill:

President Obama will launch his first campaign bus tour of the 2012 cycle next week, hitting the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
A campaign official said the two-day trip will begin July 5th, according to a report from the Associated Press.
The tour is expected to signal a shift in Obama's focus from high-profile fundraising events to greater engagement with voters.
The campaign official told the AP that while Obama will continue to focus on fundraising, his schedule would begin to include more campaign rallies and events to reach out to voters.
(...) Reports said that while the details of Obama's trip had yet to be finalized, he is expected to visit northern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania.

Balance de las Primarias Republicanas de 2012

Ayer concluyeron oficialmente las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2012 con la esperada victoria de Mitt Romney en Utah con el 93% de los votos. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts se llevó los 40 delegados en juego, sumando un total de 1,512 delegados, según Associated Press. Supera en 368 delegados los 1,144 necesarios para salir nominado en la primera votación de la convención, y es probable que se haga también con una mayoría de los delegados de los candidatos que ya han renunciado a competir en la convención (Santorum, Gingrich y Huntsman). El único competidor que sigue en activo, Ron Paul, suma 158 delegados.

Por delegados,



Por estados ganados,



Romney (37 estados): Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nueva York, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Dakota del Sur, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin y Wyoming.

Santorum (11 estados): Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Tennessee.

Gingrich (2 estados): Georgia y Carolina del Sur.

Por voto popular,

Gobernador Mitt Romney - 9,620,460 votos
Senador Rick Santorum - 3,898,874 votos
Speaker Newt Gingrich - 2,713,417 votos
Congresista Ron Paul - 2,039,214 votos
Gobernador Jon Huntsman - 84,693 votos
Gobernador Rick Perry - 54,769 votos
Congresista Michele Bachmann - 41,333 votos
Gobernador Buddy Roemer - 28,008 votos
Herman Cain - 13,629 votos
Gobernador Gary Johnson - 4,364 votos

Obama advierte del peligro de ser superado en recaudación y pide más donaciones

USA Today:

President Obama is seeking to turn fundraising challenges into a fundraising tool.
"I will be the first president in modern history to be outspent in his re-election campaign, if things continue as they have so far," Obama told donors in an e-mail today, seeking more contributions.
(...) "We can be outspent and still win -- but we can't be outspent 10 to 1 and still win," Obama says.

Obama en Miami Beach, Florida

Obama en Atlanta, Georgia

Primera parada de una mini-gira de recaudación de fondos por ciudades del Sur.

martes, 26 de junio de 2012

Romney en Salem, Virginia

Primera escala de una gira de dos días por el Viejo Dominio.

Rice: de ninguna manera seré candidata a VP

Condoleezza Rice ha dicho en This Morning (CBS): "No me presenté a presidenta del consejo escolar. No me veo a mí misma de ninguna manera en un cargo electo. Me gusta la política (policy). No tengo mucho cariño por la política (politics)... De ninguna manera haré esto, porque realmente no soy yo. Conozco mis fuerzas, y el Gobernador Romney necesita encontrar a alguien que quiera presentarse con él... Hay mucha gente que lo haría muy, muy bien, y yo apoyaré la candidatura."

"Si Cheney no hubiera aceptado, hubiera elegido a Jack Danforth"

George W. Bush cuenta en sus memorias, 'Decision Points', cómo fue el proceso que le llevó a seleccionar a Dick Cheney como running-mate:

Dick’s face was hard to read. He betrayed no emotion. He stared at the cows grazing under the broiling sun at our ranch in Crawford, Texas.
It was July 3, 2000. Ten weeks earlier, after securing the Republican presidential nomination, I had sent campaign manager Joe Allbaugh to visit Dick Cheney in Dallas. I asked him to find answers to two questions. First,was Dick interested in being a candidate for vice president? If not, was hewilling to help me find a running mate?
Dick told Joe he was happy with his life and finished with politics. But hewould be willing to lead the VP search committee.
As I expected, Dick did a meticulous, thorough job. In our first meeting, I laid out my top criteria for a running mate. I wanted someone with whom I was comfortable, someone willing to serve as part of a team, someone with the Washington experience that I lacked, and, most important, someone prepared to serve as president at any moment.
Dick recruited a small team of lawyers and discreetly gathered reams of paperwork on potential candidates. By the time he came to see me at the ranch in July, we hadnarrowed the list to nine people. But in my mind, there was always a tenth.
After a relaxed lunch with Laura, Dick and I walked into the yard behind ourold wooden ranch house. I listened patiently as Dick talked me through the search committee’s final report. Then I looked him in the eye and said,“Dick, I’ve made up my mind.”
(...) A president’s first major personnel decision comes before taking office.The vice presidential selection provides voters with a window into a candidate’s decision-making style. It reveals how careful and thorough he or she will be. And it signals a potential president’s priorities for the country.
By the time I clinched the Republican nomination in March 2000, I knewquite a bit about vice presidents. I had followed the selection process closely when Dad was discussed as a possible running mate for RichardNixon in 1968 and Gerald Ford in 1976. I had watched him serve eight years at President Reagan’s side. I had observed his relationship with Dan Quayle. And I remembered the vice presidential horror story of my youth, when Democratic nominee George McGovern picked Tom Eagleton to be his running mate, only to learn later that Eagleton had suffered several nervous breakdowns and undergone electroshock therapy.
I was determined not to repeat that mistake, which was one reason I chose someone as careful and deliberate as Dick Cheney to run the vetting process. By early summer, we were focused on the finalists. Four werecurrent or former governors: Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, Frank Keating of Oklahoma, and John Engler of Michigan. The other five were current or former senators: Jack Danforth of Missouri, Jon Kyl of Arizona, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, and Bill Frist and Fred Thompson of Tennessee.
I talked through the choices with Dick, Laura, Karl, Karen, and a few othertrusted aides. Karen recommended Tom Ridge, a Vietnam veteran from akey swing state. As a fellow chief executive, Tom would be plenty capable of running the country if anything happened to me. He was also pro-choice,which would appeal to moderates in both parties, while turning off some inthe Republican base. Others made the case for Chuck Hagel, who sat onthe Senate Foreign Relations Committee and would bring foreign policy experience. I was close with Frank Keating and John Engler, and I knew I would work well with either. Jon Kyl was a rock-solid conservative whowould help shore up the base. Lamar Alexander, Bill Frist, and Fred Thompson were fine men, and they might help me pull off an upset in Tennessee, the home state of the Democratic nominee, Vice President AlGore.
I was intrigued by Jack Danforth. An ordained minister, Jack was honest, ethical, and forthright. His voting record over three terms in the Senate was solid. He had earned my respect with his defense of Clarence Thomas during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing in 1991. He was a principled conservative who could also appeal across party lines. As a dividend, he might help carry Missouri, which would be a key battleground state.
I thought seriously about offering the job to Danforth, but I found myself returning again and again to Dick Cheney. Dick’s experience was more extensive and diverse than that of anyone else on my list. As White House chief of staff, he had helped President Ford guide the nation through the aftermath of Watergate. He had served more than a decade in Congress and never lost an election. He had been a strong secretary of defense. He had run a global business and understood the private sector. Unlike any of the senators or governors on my list, he had stood next to presidents during the most gut-wrenching decisions that reach the Oval Office, including sending Americans to war. Not only would Dick be a valuable adviser, he would be fully capable of assuming the presidency.
While Dick knew Washington better than almost anyone, he didn’t behave like an insider. He allowed subordinates to get credit. When he spoke at meetings, his carefully chosen words carried credibility and influence.
Like me, Dick was a westerner. He enjoyed fishing and spending time outdoors. He had married Lynne Vincent, his high school sweetheart fromWyoming, and he was deeply devoted to their daughters, Liz and Mary. He had a practical mind and a dry sense of humor. He told me he had started at Yale a few years before me, but the university asked him not to comeback. Twice. He said he had once filled out a compatibility test designed to match his personality with the most appropriate career. When the results came in, Dick was told he was best suited to be a funeral director.
As I mulled the decision, I called Dad for an outside opinion. I read him the names I was considering. He knew most of the candidates and said they were all fine people. “What about Dick Cheney?” I asked.
“Dick would be a great choice,” he said. “He would give you candid and solid advice. And you’d never have to worry about him going behind yourback.”
By the time Dick came to the ranch to deliver his final report, I had decided to make another run at him. As he finished his briefing, I said, “Dick, you are the perfect running mate."
While I had dropped hints before, he could tell I was serious this time.
Finally, he said, “I need to talk to Lynne.” I took that as a promising sign. He told me that he had had three heart attacks and that he and Lynne were happy with their life in Dallas. Then he said, “Mary is gay.” I could tell what he meant by the way he said it. Dick clearly loved his daughter. I felt he was gauging my tolerance. “If you have a problem with this, I’m not your man,”he was essentially saying.
I smiled at him and said, “Dick, take your time. Please talk to Lynne. And Icould not care less about Mary’s orientation.”
Later that day, I talked to a few trusted aides. I didn’t want to put all mycards on the table yet. I just told them I was thinking seriously about Cheney. Most were stunned. Karl was opposed. I asked him to come to the Governor’s Mansion to make his case. I invited one person to listen in. That would be Dick. I believe in airing out disagreements. I also wanted to cement a relationship of trust between Karl and Dick in case they ended up together in the White House.
Karl gamely delivered his arguments: Cheney’s presence on the ticket would add nothing to the electoral map, since Wyoming’s three electoralvotes were among the most reliably Republican in the country. Cheney’srecord in Congress was very conservative and included some hot-button votes that would be used against us. Dick’s heart condition would raise questions about his fitness to serve. Choosing Dad’s defense secretary could make people question whether I was my own man. Finally, Dick lived in Texas, and the Constitution prohibited two residents of the same statefrom receiving Electoral College votes.
I listened carefully to Karl’s objections. Dick said he thought they were pretty persuasive. I didn’t. Dick’s old congressional record didn’t bother me. I considered his experience on Capitol Hill an asset. His lack of impact on the electoral map did not concern me either. I believe voters base their decision on the presidential candidate, not the VP.
As for Karl’s concern about picking Dad’s defense secretary, I was convinced that the benefits of choosing a serious, accomplished running mate would compensate for any perception that I was falling back on Dad for help.
Two concerns did need to be addressed: Dick’s health and residency status. Dick agreed to have a medical exam and sent the results to Dr.Denton Cooley, a respected Houston cardiologist. The doctor said Dick’s heart would hold up to the stresses of the campaign and the vice presidency. Dick and Lynne would be able to change their voter registration to Wyoming, the state Dick had represented in Congress and still considered home.
The way Dick handled those delicate weeks deepened my confidence that he was the right choice. He never once pushed me to make up my mind. In fact, he insisted that I meet with Jack Danforth before I finalized my decision. Dick and I went to see Jack and his wife, Sally, in Chicago on July18. We had a relaxed, three-hour visit. My positive impressions of Jack were confirmed. But I had decided on Dick.
A week later, I made the formal offer. As was my habit, I got up around5:00 a.m. After two cups of coffee, I was anxious to get moving. I managed to wait until 6:22 a.m. before I called Dick. I caught him on the treadmill,which I considered a good sign. He and Lynne came down to Austin for the announcement that afternoon.
Ten years later, I have never regretted my decision to run with DickCheney. His pro-life, low-tax positions helped cement key parts of our base. He had great credibility when he announced that “Help is on the way”for the military. His steady, effective answers in the vice presidential debate with Joe Lieberman reassured voters about the strength of our ticket. It gave me comfort to know he would be ready to step in if something happened to me.
The real benefits of selecting Dick became clear fourteen months later. On a September morning in 2001, Americans awoke to an unimaginable crisis. The calm and quiet man I recruited that summer day in Crawford stood sturdy as an oak.
Jack Danforth cuenta su versión al St. Louis Beacon:


That comes as news to Danforth, who told the Beacon in an interview Wednesday that "I don't know when that [Cheney] decision was made, or whether it was made before we went to Chicago, or what it was all about." Danforth recalls sending the documents required of potential running mates to Cheney and then having a change of heart weeks before the final Chicago meeting.

"I called them up and said, 'I've thought about it, and I really don't want to do it,'" Danforth said. "Then-Gov. Bush called me and said 'Are you sure?' and I said, 'I really don't want to do it.' And then I started getting phone calls from some mutual friends of Gov. Bush and me and I said, 'Well, I'll rethink it.'"
Finally, in July, "they flew Sally and me up to Chicago, where Bush was making a speech, on a Halliburton plane," Danforth recalls. [Cheney was then chief executive of the Halliburton oil services company.] "We had a long meeting with [Bush and Cheney] and I ended up saying to them, 'I really don't want to do this. But if you want me to, I'll do it.' That was how I put it."
Later, Bush called Danforth and told him that he had chosen Cheney.
Asked this week if he was surprised by the Cheney pick, Danforth said: "I really didn't know what to think of it, to tell you the truth. It was very hard -- and still is very hard -- for me to figure out what all that was about." Danforth said the vice presidency was not "something that I was pining for. ... Was it something that Sally wanted me to do? No, she really did not. That was very much on my mind."
(...) Danforth says he has no regrets about not becoming the vice presidential candidate. "I never had the ambition to be president or vice president. It's too much. It's too pre-emptive," he says. "If you're ever the president, that's all you are for the rest of your life."

Cómo manejar los tiempos en la selección del VP

Bloomberg:

If Romney picks Kyl, McDonnell, Pawlenty, Portman or Thune -- anyone on this list, that is, but Christie or Jindal -- he should make the announcement soon. None of those guys is going to excite the Republican convention, so there is no point in waiting for it. The longer Romney waits, the more conservatives will speculate about candidates like Rubio and the more many of them will feel let down by a choice that isn’t designed to give them the rush of momentary excitement.

If Romney is going to do something boring, in other words, he should at least do it in a novel way.

"Revealed"

Chicago responde a una reciente campaña de anuncios de Romney en varios estados, con spots negativos en Iowa, OhioVirginia.

SPOT DE ROMNEY: "Los 100 primeros días del Presidente Romney. Crear miles de nuevos empleos para los habitantes de Virginia."

NARRADOR: "El Washington Post acaba de revelar que las compañías de Romney fueron pioneras enviando empleos estadounidenses al extranjero. Invirtiendo en firmas especializadas en deslocalizar empleos hechos por trabajadores americanos a nuevas instalaciones en países con sueldos bajos como China e India. ¿De verdad Virginia quiere a un subcontratador en jefe en la Casa Blanca?"

Obama en Boston, Massachusetts

Obama en Durham, New Hampshire

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

lunes, 25 de junio de 2012

Reacciones de Obama y Romney al fallo del TS sobre la ley migratoria de Arizona

The New York Times:

The rivals for the presidency reacted swiftly on Monday to the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down parts of Arizona’s aggressive immigration laws while letting a controversial provision stand.
President Obama said the decision to stop enforcement of parts of the Arizona law underscored the need for comprehensive immigration reform by the federal government. But he said he remained concerned about a provision that requires the police to check the status of people they suspect may be in the country illegally.
“I remain concerned about the practical impact of the remaining provision of the Arizona law that requires local law enforcement officials to check the immigration status of anyone they even suspect to be here illegally,” Mr. Obama said. “No American should ever live under a cloud of suspicion just because of what they look like.”
(...) In his statement, Mr. Obama vowed to “work with anyone in Congress” to make progress on comprehensive immigration reform. But he said that in the meantime he would “continue to use every federal resource,” a reference to the deportation policy he announced two weeks ago.
Mitt Romney issued a brief statement saying he supported aggressive efforts by states to fight illegal immigration.
“I believe that each state has the duty – and the right – to secure our borders and preserve the rule of law, particularly when the federal government has failed to meet its responsibilities,” Mr. Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, said in a written statement.
(...) In his statement, Mr. Romney said that the ruling “underscores the need for a president who will lead on this critical issue and work in a bipartisan fashion to pursue a national immigration strategy. President Obama has failed to provide any leadership on immigration. This represents yet another broken promise by this president.”
But he did not say whether he thought the court had erred in invalidating parts of the state’s law. Nor did he express specific support for the Arizona provisions that the court upheld.

Karen Hughes: examinar a un vicepresidenciable es como hacerle una colonoscopia

Karen Hughes, que hace doce años ayudó a George W. Bush a buscar running-mate, describió así el proceso ayer en NBC:

"Es el equivalente político a una colonoscopia. Están examinando cada pulgada de la vida y el pasado de cada candidato. Y preferirían poder hacerlo lejos de los focos de la publicidad... Buscan a alguien que aporte algo que sirva para sumar, generalmente no solo a tu habilidad para hacer campaña, sino de manera más importante a tu habilidad para gobernar efectivamente una vez que eres elegido Presidente."