miércoles, 29 de febrero de 2012

Realista Romney



Mitt Romney mantiene "Believe in America" como la madre de todos los eslóganes, pero la va mezclando con otras consignas. En Arizona y Michigan utilizó "Restore America's promise," y de cara al SuperMartes, deja a un lado las ideas abstractas, y opta por un lema mucho más utilitario: "More jobs, less debt, smaller government."

Demócratas por Santorum

Este web ad de Romney muestra a un buen número de demócratas que ayer votaron a Santorum para "proteger a Obama."

"Win one for the Gipper"

"Three of a Kind"

Ron Paul pone en evidencia a todos sus rivales en este spot de 1 minuto que se emitirá en Washington. Por primera vez, ataca también a Romney.

NARRADOR: "Uno (Gingrich) es un hipócrita en serie que presionó a favor de Freddie Mac antes de la crisis hipotecaria y a favor del mandato individual antes del ObamaCare. Otro (Santorum), un conservador falsificado, que se opone al derecho al trabajo, que aumentó masivamente el gasto y financió Planned Parenthood. Finalmente, un flip-flopper (Romney) que ha estado en todos los bandos: apoyó los rescates del TARP y proporcionó un anteproyecto para el ObamaCare. Tres hombres, una visión: más gobierno, más mandatos, menos libertad.

"Un hombre se distintgue, preparado para emprender un cambio real, votando contra todos los aumentos de impuestos y todos los presupuestos desequilibrados, siempre. Un plan real para recortar 1 billón de dólares en el primer año y equilibrar el presupuesto en tres. Pro-vida, pro-libertad, guiado por la fe y los principios. Ron Paul, el único que restaurará América ahora."


Qué podemos esperar del SuperMartes



CNN:
Romney continues to lead his foes in the delegate hunt, adding at least three dozen to his total after beating Rick Santorum in Michigan and Arizona.

But with 437 delegates on the table next Tuesday, and with most of them allocated according to each candidate's share of the vote, all four of the GOP contenders are certain to boost their delegate counts, giving everyone in the field a rationale, however thin, to move forward.

The Super Tuesday map features both bright spots and traps for every candidate -- Romney is expected to coast to easy wins in Massachusetts and Virginia, for instance, but faces a tough slog in states like Ohio and Tennessee -- meaning that no one is likely to emerge as an outright victor when the smoke clears.

With none of the candidates boasting an across-the-board advantage, a handful of contested states will take on outsized importance.

The day's biggest prize is Ohio.

Though the state has 10 fewer delegates than Georgia, Ohio carries enormous symbolic weight both as a general election bellwether and a Republican proving ground.

Ohio will test each candidate's ability to connect with GOP voters of all stripes -- from rural, small town conservatives to working class whites to wealthier moderates in the suburbs around Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Romney trailed Santorum by double digits in Ohio prior to his win Tuesday night in neighboring Michigan, a state where Santorum had hoped his blue-collar pitch would resonate.

Santorum came up short in Michigan and Romney emerged with a much-needed win after a month that highlighted his vulnerabilities as a candidate, but Ohio Republicans say Romney's path forward is still fraught with challenges.

(...) "Romney is suffering from the same soft feelings among Republicans in Ohio as he is everywhere else," said one high-ranking GOP figure in Ohio who is not supporting any candidate in the race. "And don't forget, a big swath of this state is basically right next to western Pennsylvania, where Santorum's wheelhouse was."

(...) The stakes are unquestionably highest for Gingrich, who has pinned his hopes on Super Tuesday ever since his deflating loss to Romney in Florida in January.

Since then, Santorum has seized the conservative, anti-Romney mantle while Gingrich has limped through February, longing to compete in several southern states where his campaign hopes his Georgia roots and bold conservative rhetoric will hold appeal.

On Sunday, Gingrich said a win in Georgia is "central to the future of our campaign," a tacit admission that anything less than a win in his home state would derail his sputtering candidacy.

Ralph Reed, a GOP strategist and a former chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, said Gingrich must be considered the frontrunner there because of his longstanding goodwill with party veterans and his endorsements from Gov. Nathan Deal and members of the state's Congressional delegation.

(...) Along with Georgia, the Gingrich campaign is hoping to snare delegates in Ohio (66), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43) and parts of Idaho (32), where delegates are awarded on a county-by-county basis.

Though his candidacy is in far better shape than Gingrich's, the coming week will also present several key tests for Romney.

He is all-but-certain to win his home state of Massachusetts (41) and Virginia (49), where only he and Paul managed to qualify for the ballot.

Romney is also expected to perform well in Idaho, where Mormon voters, who backed the former Massachusetts governor by wide margins in previous contests, could exceed 30% of the caucus vote, according to some Republicans in the state.

But primaries in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia may once again call attention to Romney's frosty relationship with hardline conservatives.

(...) Romney's drubbing in South Carolina earlier this year raised questions about his ability to win over conservatives in the South -- the GOP's most reliable voting bloc in general elections -- if he eventually wins the nomination.

His performance in the southern states on Tuesday could either squelch some of those concerns or exacerbate them.

"Romney has to show some kind of lift in the South, and not just in Virginia," said Republican pollster Ed Goeas. "Ohio is going to be the big battle that day, but I would also look to see what happens in Tennessee and Georgia."

Republicans agree that Super Tuesday will not determine the party's nominee, but it could very well harden the emerging outlines of the Republican race.

Próximas citas

Hoy concluye el caucus de Wyoming que se viene celebrando desde el 9 de febrero y que es en realidad un straw poll. Ningún candidato ha querido disputarle la victoria en serio a Romney porque hay pocos delegados en juego, que se elegirán más tarde, y 47,000 mormones (el 11% de la población).

La próxima cita importante es el caucus de Washington, el próximo sábado, que reparte 43 delegados. Es el mayor número de delegados en juego en un sólo estado entre Florida y el SuperMartes, aunque en tamaño, población, y republicanos registrados, esté por detrás de Arizona y Michigan. Esa contradicción se debe a que Arizona y Michigan fueron sancionados por el RNC por haber adelantado sus primarias. De toda maneras, como ocurría en Iowa y otros caucuses, la cita del sábado es una votación de preferencia presidencial, y se supone que los delegados serán elegidos en una convención estatal dentro de tres meses.

Y el próximo martes es la gran cita: el SuperMartes. 437 delegados en juego en un sólo día, y la mayoría de ellos se repartirán de forma proporcional.

En la barra de la derecha os he dejado el calendario completo del mes de marzo.

Recuento de delegados

Según Associated Press:


* Se necesitan 1,144 delegados para ganar la nominación.

Resultados de las primarias de Michigan y Arizona

Con el 99% escrutado en Michigan:

Romney 410,517 votos (41.1%)
Santorum 378,124 votos (37.9%)
Paul 115,956 votos (11.6%)
Gingrich 65,093 votos (6.5%)
No comprometido 18,864 votos (1.9%)
Perry 1,910 votos (0.2%)
Roemer 1,878 votos (0.2%)
Bachmann 1,765 votos (0.2)
Huntsman 1,732 votos (0.2%)
Cain 1,243 votos (0.1%)
Karger 1,236 votos (0.1%)
Johnson 524 votos (0.1%)

Con el 100% escrutado en Arizona:

Romney 216,805 votos (47.3%)
Santorum 122,088 votos (26.6%)
Gingrich 74,110 votos (16.2%)
Paul 38,753 votos (8.4%)
Perry 1,871 votos (0.4%)
Gonzales 1,460 votos (0.3%)
Roemer 657 votos (0.1%)
Sims 489 votos (0.1%)
Cisneros 398 votos (0.1%)
Callahan 326 votos (0.1%)
Perry 288 votos (0.1%)
Benjamin 207 votos (0.0%)
Levinson 202 votos (0.0%)
Dean 189 votos (0.0%)
Zack 142 votos (0.0%)
Hill 129 votos (0.0%)
Lynch 101 votos (0.0%)
Arnett 90 votos (0.0%)
Perkins 85 votos (0.0%)
Welch 78 votos (0.0%)
Terr 57 votos (0.0%)
Bollander 53 votos (0.0%)
Skelley 53 votos (0.0%)

Romney: una gran victoria

Santorum, satisfecho

Ron Paul: la revolución ha llegado

Gingrich habla de árboles y del precio de la gasolina

martes, 28 de febrero de 2012

Primarias en Michigan y Arizona: doblete de Romney

TV: CNN / CNN Live / C-SPAN.

Resultados de Michigan: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Arizona: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Recordad lo que hay que saber de estas primarias.
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Actualización 10:35 pm -

Con el 76% escrutado en Michigan:

Romney 315,851 votos (41%)
Santorum 285,103 votos 37%)
Paul 88,368 votos (12%)
Gingrich 50,582 votos (7%)

Romney tiene 2 delegados garantizados. Ahora falta por ver cómo se reparten los delegados por distritos electorales.

Con el 69% escrutado en Arizona:

Romney 186,679 votos (48%)
Santorum 98,626 votos (25%)
Gingrich 64,107 votos (17%)
Paul 32,2706 votos (8%)

Parece que apelar a los hispanos le va a servir a Gingrich para salvar la honra y quedar tercero en Arizona, aunque no se va a llevar ningún delegado. Romney se lleva todos los delegados de Arizona (29).

Actualización 10:22 pm -

Antes de salir a hablar, Santorum ha telefoneado a Romney para conceder la elección y felicitarle por su victoria.

Actualización 10:19 pm -



Associated Press declara que Mitt Romney ha ganado la primaria de Michigan.

Con el 71% escrutado: Romney 41%, Santorum 37%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Actualización 10:15 pm -

Santorum ha salido a hablar, aceptando tácitamente que no va a ganar Michigan. "Hace un mes, no sabían quiénes éramos, pero ahora lo saben."

Actualización 10:10 pm -

Con el 69% escrutado en Michigan: Romney 40%, Santorum 36%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%. O lo que es lo mismo, 29,000 votos de ventaja de Romney sobre Santorum, que se deben a los suburbios de Detroit: en Oakland gana por unos 15,000 votos, en Wayne por 9,000 votos, y en Macomb por 5,000. Mientras, Santorum gana en Kent (Grand Rapids) por unos escasos 400 votos, aunque con poco voto escrutado, y en Ottawa (suburbio de Grand Rapids) por poco más de 2,000 votos.

Según los sondeos a pie de urna, la participación ha subido sólo entre los bloques de votantes de los que Romney dependía para ganar: mujeres, jubilados, universitarios, y rentas altas. Así que su victoria podría ser el resultado de una mejor organización para llevar a los votantes a las urnas. Un detalle que puede ser fundamental también en otros grandes estados como Ohio.

Actualización 9:30 pm -

Con el 36% escrutado en Michigan: Romney 41%, Santorum 38%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Todo apunta a una victoria de Romney porque todavía falta por escrutar más del 70% de los suburbios de Detroit, donde está ganando holgadamente.

Un indicio de que Romney podría encontrar dificultades en las primarias de otros estados del Medio Oeste es que Santorum está ganando con cierta comodidad los condados limítrofes con Ohio e Indiana. Ya en 2008 Romney perdió esos condados.

Actualización 9:15 pm -

Romney supera el 90% en Intrade.

Con el 27% escrutado en Michigan: Romney 41%, Santorum 38%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 4%.

Está perdiendo Grand Rapids y sus suburbios, pero gana bien en los suburbios de Detroit. En Oakland 48%-33% con el 11% escrutado; en Wayne 51%-28% con el 9% escrutado; en Macomb 41%-35% con el 11% escrutado.

Actualización 9:06 pm -

Todos los medios proyectan la victoria de Romney en Arizona, basándose en sondeos a pie de urna.

Actualización 9:03 pm -

Romney ha ganado en el pequeño condado de Alcona (43%-37%). En 2008 lo perdió por un punto.

Con el 19% escrutado: Romney 41%, Santorum 38%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Actualización 8:50 pm -

Con el 12% escrutado en Michigan: Santorum 41%, Romney 38%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

La buena noticia para Romney es que todavía no se ha escrutado ni el 1% en los suburbios de Detroit.

Actualización 8:40 pm -

Bob Ehrlich, ex Gobernador de Maryland y asesor de Romney, dice que ha tenido acceso a los últimos sondeos a pie de urna en Michigan y se atreve a pronosticar que van a ganar.

Con el 7% escrutado: Santorum 40%, Romney 39%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Actualización 8:35 pm -

Las apuestas en Intrade sobre la primaria de Michigan se igualan. Ahora mismo, Romney 53%, Santorum 49%.

Con el 5% escrutado: Santorum 40%, Romney 39%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Actualización 8:27 pm -

Entre el 10% de demócratas que se calcula que ha participado en la primaria de Michigan, Santorum arrasa con el 50% (19% para Paul, 15% para Romney, y 4% para Gingrich). Esto también se está viendo entre las cabezas parlantes de la tele: los que tiran hacia los demócratas argumentan a favor de Santorum, y los republicanos defienden a Romney.

De momento, con sólo el 2% escrutado: Santorum 41%, Romney 37%, Paul 11%, Gingrich 7%.

Actualización 8:18 pm -

Romney no quiere saber nada de una convención abierta.

"No creo que haya ninguna posibilidad de una convención abierta. No puedo imaginarme a los cuatro candidatos diciendo, después de un largo proceso de recaudación de fondos y campaña de entre uno y dos años, que vamos a apartarnos y darle la nominación a otra persona."





Actualización 8:07 pm -

Las urnas ya han cerrado en la mayor parte de Michigan. Romney está en el 63% en las apuestas de Intrade, Santorum en el 37%.

Actualización 7:50 pm -

La relación entre la marca de coche que se conduce y la orientación del voto en Michigan.



Actualización 7:08 pm -

Chris Cillizza nos dice que nos fijemos en cinco condados de Michigan.

Actualización 6:45 pm -

Santorum se ha unido a los voluntarios de su campaña para hacer llamadas de última hora en Grand Rapids.



Actualización 6:40 pm -

Más datos de Michigan. 6 de cada 10 participantes en la primaria son republicanos registrados y 3 de cada 10 son independientes. El 13% se declaran liberales y el 14% dicen pertenecer a algún sindicato.

Actualización 6:20 pm -

Según resultados parciales de los sondeos a pie de urna en Michigan, 6 de cada 10 votantes en la primaria republicana se declaran conservadores, y 3 de cada 10 se definen a sí mismos como moderados. Así que es el electorado más moderado al que se hayan enfrentado los candidatos desde la primaria de New Hampshire.

Un 10% de los participantes en la primaria republicana han dicho que se consideran demócratas. Son más que el 7% de 2008, pero menos que el 17% de 2000.

Actualización 3:45 pm -

Voy a ver la película 'Beyond the rocks' (1922) de Sam Wood, un clásico de la Paramount con Rodolfo Valentino y Gloria Swanson. Volveré más tarde.

Os dejo con Clint Eastwood recibiendo 8,000 impactos de bala en las calles de Phoenix, Arizona, en 'Ruta suicida' (1977).



Actualización 3:34 pm -

Participación parecida a la de hace cuatro años en Michigan, según el Detroit Free Press:
Turn-out in today’s presidential primary election looks to be about the same or less than it was four years ago, according to a sampling of clerks in key precincts the Free Press is using to analyze the vote.
Actualización 3:25 pm -

Sólo Mitt Romney y Rick Santorum estarán en Michigan esta noche. Romney compartirá su alegría o decepción con sus seguidores en Novi, un suburbio de Detroit, en el condado de Oakland. Santorum ha optado por Grand Rapids para pasar la noche electoral.

Ron Paul y Newt Gingrich esperarán resultados en dos de los estados que votan el Supermartes: Paul en Virginia; Gingrich en Georgia.

¿A quién votará RoboCop?

El hombre que ponía orden en Detroit en unos futuristas años 80.

Peter King: si Romney no gana Michigan...



El Congresista republicano Peter King, de Nueva York:

"Si Romney no gana Michigan, esto crea problemas reales para su candidatura. Creo que entonces se empezará a ver más actividad entre el establishment republicano... hablando con gente como Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels... Rick Santorum ha tenido muchos puntos negativos esta semana. Si es capaz de ganar Michigan, eso evidencia un problema real que Mitt Romney tiene... Puede que (candidatos republicanos adicionales) se estén organizando, siendo reclutados. Y estén tratando de conseguir que uno de ellos acepte presentarse, digamos, si el SuperMartes no resulta mejor para Romney. Creo que va a haber más interés, más énfasis, para tener a alguien preparado el SuperMartes si Romney no se las arregla para liberarse... No tengo información interna, sólo rumores."

Doce cosas que pasarán si Romney pierde Michigan

Por Mark Halperin:
A dozen things that will happen if Mitt Romney loses Michigan:

1. Romney will face inordinate pressure to shake up his campaign team.

2. He will face public questions from elected officials and Republicans strategists about his electability and competence that will make past doubts seem mild.

3. He will have even more trouble raising money for his campaign and his Super PAC.

4. He will face more pressure to put his own millions of dollars into the campaign — and the dilemma that, if he does, it willdiscourage additional contributions from others even more.

5. He will dial around like a management consultant on steroids, seeking advice about how to turn things around.

6. His campaign will begin to argue through the media even more strenuously that this is a contest of delegate accumulation, rather than momentum.

7. His campaign will face the challenge of spinning how he lost his home state — and will argue that Santorum won with illegitimate Democratic votes.

8. People will start to notice that the upcoming states (outside of New England) are not so good for Romney politically.

9. Rick Santorum will face a moment of maximum opportunity to consolidate support — and will blow it if he fails to pivot to an economic message.

10. Newt Gingrich will see his moment to get back in the game by besting Santorum in Super Tuesday's Southern contest.

11. The country will be subjected to another round of Christie-Bush-Daniels-Ryan speculation.

12. Romney will still be the frontrunner for the nomination.

Romney: Santorum quiere secuestrar la primaria

Mitt Romney ha visitado esta mañana el cuartel general de su campaña de Michigan, en Livonia, un suburbio de Detroit. "Vosotros estáis llamando a republicanos. La campaña de Santorum está hoy haciendo llamadas a demócratas," ha dicho ante decenas de voluntarios.

Seguramente para salir en la tele durante toda la jornada electoral, y convencer a los indecisos de última hora y hacer cambiar de opinión a los que no le apoyan, ha utilizado algunas expresiones fuertes, como que Santorum está intentando "secuestrar" la primaria con "trucos sucios." También se ha referido a él como un peso ligero en economía.

Dowd: una victoria de Santorum en MI sería un terremoto de 9 grados

Esta mañana en Good Morning America (ABC), el estratega republicano Matthew Dowd ha especulado sobre las consecuencias de una victoria de Santorum en Michigan:

"Si Rick Santorum gana esta noche es el equivalente a un terremoto de 9 grados en la escala Richter. Quiero decir que va a agitar Washington, va a agitar al establishment republicano, va a agitar las cosas en lo más profundo. Y creo que lo que vamos a ver son las conversaciones que han estado sucediendo detrás de puertas cerradas diciendo que necesitamos otro candidato."

Stephanopoulos le ha recordado que un nuevo candidato probablemente no tendría ya tiempo de atar la nominación, pero Dowd ha señalado que sí podría utilizar las primarias que queden para demostrar que es más elegible que los actuales candidatos, y hacerse con la nominación en la convención.

"(Un candidato nuevo puede) demostrar que estos tipos no son los más elegibles. Puede que no sea capaz de ganar el número de delegados, pero si nadie consigue la mayoría de los delegados antes de la convención, y si alguien sale y aparece mañana, la semana que viene, o en dos semanas, podría demostrar que puede ganar."

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Se espera una noche larga en Michigan

Nate Silver:
People sometimes apply the term “tossup” a bit too broadly, using it to refer to anything close enough that they don’t want to render a prediction about it.

In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Mr. Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race — perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not.

(...) One word of warning: factors like early voting, crossover voting and the relatively large amount of demographic diversity within Michigan will make it tricky to call the state based on exit poll results and the first few precincts that report. For instance, if early and absentee results are reported before those cast on Election Day, as is common in some states, Mr. Romney could initially emerge with a lead that proves ephemeral. I generally take the view that the news networks are too quick to call a race — shouldn’t have we learned something from Florida in 2000 or Iowa this year? — but there is reason to be especially cautious here.

La ventaja menguante de Romney en Michigan

The Guardian:

¿Operación Caos?



Dana Bash (CNN) nos cuenta que el estratega demócrata Joe DiSano ha montado una operación para movilizar a decenas de miles de demócratas para que voten a Rick Santorum en la primaria republicana de Michigan, con el propósito de debilitar al front-runner Romney.

Nada de esto es nuevo. Los demócratas de Michigan hicieron algo parecido con éxito hace doce años pidiendo el voto por McCain para debilitar a Bush. Y hace cuatro años, recordaréis los llamamientos de Rush Limbaugh a sus oyentes republicanos para que se pasaran al otro bando a apoyar a Hillary en la primaria de Texas, y alargar así las primarias demócratas.

Dos posibles escenarios después de Michigan



CBS News:
Let's look at both potential scenarios.

ROMNEY WINS MICHIGAN: (...) A loss in Michigan would effectively end Santorum's moment, at least for now, and once again establish Romney as the frontrunner for the nomination.

Other than Romney, the candidate who has the most to gain from a Santorum loss in Michigan is Newt Gingrich. Both Santorum and Gingrich are hoping to do well in the Southern states that begin voting on March 6, when ten states hold contests on what has become known as Super Tuesday. A Santorum loss in Michigan opens the door for the former House speaker to reassert himself as a plausible conservative alternative to Romney, while a Santorum win may close the Gingrich window for good.

Romney winning Michigan (and, presumably, Arizona) doesn't hand the former Massachusetts governor the nomination. Perhaps the most important Super Tuesday vote is in Ohio, where a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Santorum leading Romney 36 percent to 29 percent; Romney would likely get a boost out of a Michigan win, but Santorum - who hails from nearby Pennsylvania - won't go away without a fight. And no matter what happens, Romney is expected to have a hard time in at least three other Super Tuesday states: Georgia (Gingrich's home state), Tennessee and Oklahoma, deeply conservative Southern states relatively hostile to the wealthy, Ivy league-educated Romney. A new Vanderbilt University poll in Tennessee shows Santorum leading Romney there 38 percent to 20 percent.

The good news for Romney is that he still has more money, better organization and more establishment support than any of his rivals. And if he wins both states Tuesday, he'll be able to claim momentum as well.

SANTORUM WINS MICHIGAN: And the Romney campaign goes into full panic mode. There will be headlines about how Romney can't win in the Midwest, can't win conservatives, and can't win working-class voters; his recent spate of tone-deaf comments inadvertently spotlighting his wealth (most recently that he doesn't really follow NASCAR but hey, he's got friends who own teams) will be spotlighted to argue that Romney's claim to be the most electable candidate against President Obama simply doesn't hold up. Romney won't be finished - see the advantages mentioned above, along with the fact that only he and Paul are on the ballot in Virginia, which votes on Super Tuesday - but he will be reeling, and he'll need to find a way to win in Ohio to keep the wheels from going off completely.

Santorum, meanwhile, will be able to claim frontrunner status, and will likely build on his Michigan win with victories in Tennessee, Oklahoma and maybe even Georgia -- which would effectively knock Gingrich out of the race. The contest would then likely become a long slog that could last all the way until June, with Romney, Santorum and Paul battling for delegates and tearing each other down as President Obama looks on happily from the sidelines.

The situation would also increase the prospects of a contested convention, in which no candidate has the 1,144 delegates necessary to secure the nomination outright. That's good news for Paul, a long shot for the nomination who has focused on accruing delegates and could play kingmaker at a contested convention. In exchange for his delegates, Paul could force the nominee to adopt changes in the party platform that move the GOP closer to Paul's brand of small-government libertarianism.

It is not just the Romney campaign who would go into panic mode following a Santorum win. Many Republican party elders would be grasping for the proverbial red button. There are deep concerns among establishment types that Santorum, with his unapologetic embrace of social conservatism, would both lose badly in November -- and be a drag on Republicans in their effort to hang onto the House and take over the Senate.

If Santorum wins Tuesday, expect to see the calls for a last-minute candidate such as Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie to come in at the last minute and try to keep Santorum from the nomination. It's not clear how that's possible - most of the primary filing deadlines have passed, and even in the case of a contested convention, Santorum won't simply stand aside. but that won't keep a good chunk of worried establishment Republicans from trying to push him.

Team Santorum quiere movilizar a los demócratas

Team Santorum está haciendo llamadas automatizadas a los demócratas de Michigan para que salgan hoy a votar contra Romney, por su oposición a los rescates de la industria automovilística, a los que Santorum también se ha opuesto. Si no fuera porque al final del mensaje se aclara que está pagado por Santorum, cualquier demócrata que recibiera la llamada pensaría que es un llamamiento de los sindicatos.

Más de 4,000 personas para ver a Ron Paul


Ron Paul llenó ayer las gradas del auditorio de la Michigan State University en Lansing.

Último sondeo de PPP en Michigan: Santorum 38%, Romney 37%

Public Policy Polling:
PPP's final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

It's always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum's direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn't already voted, Santorum's advantage was 41-31.

Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that's actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum's up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they're only 8% of the likely electorate that's enough to put him over the top. The big question now is whether those folks will actually bother to show up and vote tomorrow.

Even though things seem to be moving back in Santorum's direction, there's one big reason to think that Romney will still come out as the winner tomorrow night. 18% of the electorate has already cast its ballots and with those voters in the bank Romney has a 56-29 advantage. Santorum's likely to win election day voters, but he''s going to have to do it by a wide margin to erase the lead Romney has stored. We see Santorum with a 40-33 advantage among those who have yet to vote.

Romney hasn't made a good last impression on Michigan voters. His favorability in Sunday interviews was 57/36, but in Monday interviews it was only 47/48. Santorum saw little difference in his reviews between the two days: 54/39 on Sunday and 56/36 on Monday. If Romney does indeed end up losing tomorrow there's not much doubt he will have blown it in the final 48 hours.

Lo que hay que saber de las primarias de AZ y MI



Arizona tiene una primaria semi-abierta, lo que significa que podrán votar los republicanos y los independientes (hay 1,124,726 republicanos registrados, 1,030,643 independientes registrados, y 951,359 demócratas registrados). Los demócratas no podrán votar en la primaria republicana.

El voto por adelantado empezó el 2 de febrero, y se calcula que aproximadamente la mitad de los que se espera que voten, ya han votado. La clave en Arizona suele estar en el condado de Maricopa, donde se encuentra Phoenix. Más de una cuarta parte de la población de todo el estado se concentra en este condado. Hasta el pasado fin de semana, habían votado unos 210,500 votantes por adelantado en Maricopa, el 30% de los republicanos registrados en el condado.

Arizona reparte 29 delegados con el sistema winner-take-all. Es decir, el ganador de la primaria se lleva todos los delegados.

En Michigan, cualquier votante registrado puede tomar parte en la primaria republicana, incluidos los demócratas. Sólo se les exige declarar por escrito que están votando en la primaria republicana, para que el partido pueda acceder a sus datos, sin que eso implique un cambio de afiliación en caso de que no sean republicanos.

No hay voto por adelantado en Michigan. Hay voto por correo y se calcula que un 16% habrá votado por correo. Se espera una participación ligeramente superior a la de 2008; entonces votó el 19% de los votantes registrados, y esta vez los expertos creen que debemos esperar que vote un 23% más o menos, que serían entre 1.5 y 2 millones de votos. (pasad a ver la geografía electoral de Michigan)

Michigan reparte 30 delegados con un sistema "proporcional" que en realidad no lo es porque no va en función de los porcentajes a nivel estatal, sino de las victorias en los diferentes distritos electorales. Por ganar la primaria a nivel estatal te dan 2 delegados, y los otros 28 se reparten entre los ganadores de los 14 distritos electorales que tiene el estado (por cada distrito que ganes, sumas 2 delegados). Así que si ganas un distrito por 20 puntos te llevas los mismos delegados que si lo ganas por 1 punto.


* Las urnas cierran a las 8 pm (hora de la Costa Este) en la mayor parte de Michigan, salvo en los condados situados más al Oeste que cierran a las 9 pm. En Arizona todas cierran a las 9 pm.

Romney en Royal Oak, Michigan

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Santorum en Kalamazoo, Michigan

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Ron Paul en Dearborn, Michigan

Gingrich en Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN)

Romney en Hannity (Fox News)

Santorum en Hannity (Fox News)

lunes, 27 de febrero de 2012

Romney en Rockford, Michigan

Un rally en un suburbio de Grand Rapids.

Rasmussen: Santorum, recuperando terreno en Michigan

Rasmussen:
Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney with 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided.
Después del debate del pasado jueves, Rasmussen le daba seis puntos de ventaja a Romney (40% - 34%).

ARG: empate en Michigan

American Research Group:


Rick Santorum holds a slight lead heading into the Michigan Republican presidential primary. Santorum leads with 36% and is followed by Mitt Romney with 35%, Ron Paul with 15%, and Newt Gingrich with 8%.

Santorum has lost 2 percentage points since a similar survey conducted February 21-22, 2012, while Romney has gained 1 percentage point.

Romney now leads Santorum 38% to 37% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Gingrich with 11% and Paul with 9%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 34%, followed by Romney with 30%, Paul with 25%, and Gingrich with 3%.

Santorum leads Romney 36% to 35% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the February 28 primary, followed by Paul with 16% and Gingrich with 7%. Romney and Santorum are tied at 35% each among those saying they will probably vote, followed by Gingrich with 14% and Paul with 9%.

Santorum leads with 42% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 27%, Gingrich with 13%, and Paul with 11%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 40%, followed by Santorum with 32%, Paul with 17%, and Gingrich with 5%.

Santorum leads Romney 38% to 31% among men, followed by Paul with 18% and Gingrich with 9%. Romney leads Santorum 40% to 33% among women, followed by Paul with 11% and Gingrich with 7%.

Santorum en Fox & Friends

Eventos de campaña en directo

Romney, Santorum y Paul están en Michigan. Gingrich en Tennessee.

CNN Live ofrecerá en directo estos eventos:

11:00 AM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich roundtable
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich hosts a roundtable discussion on health care in Nashville.

12:45 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney in Michigan
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney participates in a campaign rally in Albion, Michigan.

01:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich luncheon
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks at a luncheon in Nashville.

03:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum rally
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum addresses a campaign rally in Lansing, Michigan.

04:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Ron Paul youth rally
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul participates in a campaign rally for young people in East Lansing, Michigan.

04:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich in Nashville
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks at a rally for supporters in Nashville.

06:45 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney Michigan rally
Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder joins GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney at a campaign event in Royal Oak, Michigan.

07:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum in Michigan
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum holds a campaign rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone: Santorum 37%, Romney 35% en Michigan

Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone:
With a strong, successful push over the weekend to move conservatives, especially social conservatives, back to him, Rick Santorum has re-taken the lead in the latest Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service) Sunday night. The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, although Romney (35%) has lost his lead to Rick Santorum (37%) while Newt Gingrich (9%) and Ron Paul (8%) are locked in a battle for third place. Eleven percent remains undecided.

"There is an overlay between social and fiscal conservatives. Romney's strategy had been to win over all conservatives by hammering Santorum on the fact that he is not the fiscal conservative he claimed to be. Up until the weekend, that strategy seemed to be successful. However, Santorum's push for social conservatives in the past three days seems to have worked and they moved back to him, allowing him to re-take the lead. The volatility we thought had changed has not. The race remains very fluid, Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

"With two other polls released last night saying Romney was ahead, we carefully examined and re-examined our data to make sure it was correct. We believe the race has shifted since our Thursday survey," John Garst of Rosetta Stone Communications said.

Santorum seems to have reversed Romney's inroads into key conservative demographics.

We Ask America: Romney 39%, Santorum 33% en Michigan

We Ask America:

PPP: Romney 39%, Santorum 37% en Michigan



Public Policy Polling:
Mitt Romney's taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP's newest Michigan poll. He's at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney's gained 6 points, while Santorum's just stayed in place.

Romney will go into election day with a large lead in the bank. Only 16% of Michigan voters say they've already cast their ballots, but Romney has a whooping 62-29 advantage over Santorum with that group. Santorum actually leads Romney 39-34 with those who are planning to cast their votes on Tuesday, but he'd need to win election day voters by even more than that to neutralize the advantage Romney's built up.

The last week of the campaign in Michigan has seen significant damage to Santorum's image with GOP voters in the state. His net favorability has declined 29 points from +44 (67/23) to now only +15 (54/39). Negative attacks on Romney meanwhile have had no negative effect with his favorability steady at +20 (57/37). Two weeks ago Santorum's net favorability in Michigan was 34 points better than Romney's. Now Romney's is 5 points better than Santorum's. Those kinds of wild swings are the story of the GOP race.

One place Santorum may have hurt himself in the last week is an overemphasis on social issues. 69% of voters say they're generally more concerned with economic issues this year to only 17% who pick social issues. And with the overwhelming majority of voters more concerned about the economy, Romney leads Santorum 45-30. Santorum's winning those more concerned about social issues 79-12 but it's just not that big a piece of the pie.

Romney has made significant in roads with all of Santorum's key groups of support. 2 weeks ago Santorum had leads around 30 points with Evangelicals, Tea Party voters, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Santorum's still winning all those groups, but by significantly diminished margins- it's only 7 points with Evangelicals and Tea Partiers and 10 with 'very conservative' Republicans.

Romney's key base of support in Michigan, as it has been many places, is seniors. He has a 50-34 advantage with them and since most of those who have already voted fall into the over 65 category, that's a big part of why he has such a large lead with that group.

PPP: Romney ganará fácilmente en Arizona



Public Policy Polling:
Mitt Romney is headed for an overwhelming victory in Arizona's primary on Tuesday. He's at 43% to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Newt Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

You can make a fair argument that Romney's already won the Arizona primary. Almost half of those planning to vote have already cast their ballots, and Romney has a 48-25 advantage over Santorum with those folks. That lead makes it nearly impossible for Santorum to make up the difference on election day, and Romney has a 39-27 advantage with those planning to vote on Tuesday anyway.

Romney's winning basically winning every voter group in Arizona, even those he's tended to do quite poorly with. He leads Santorum 39-33 with Evangelicals, 39-23 with Tea Party voters (Santorum's in 3rd, Gingrich is actually 2nd at 30%), and 37-29 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' We project the Mormon vote at 14%. Romney leads 77-9 with them, but he has a 38-29 advantage with non-Mormons as well. Seniors are a key base of support for him in Arizona as they are everywhere. He leads 53-22 with them.

Santorum's image has taken a big hit over the last week in the state. His net favorability has dropped 15 points from +34 (61/27) to just +19 (54/35). The debate Wednesday night may have damaged his cause. 51% of likely voters report having watched it and he's actually in 3rd place with those folks at 21%, behind Romney's 43% and Gingrich's 23%.

Santorum may also have misstepped by talking too much about social issues in the last few weeks. 68% of Arizona voters say economic issues are their top concern when deciding who to vote for, compared to just 11% who say social issues are paramount. With the folks most concerned about economic issues he trails Romney 48-24.

domingo, 26 de febrero de 2012

La Noche de los Oscar

Greta Garbo y John Gilbert en 'El demonio y la carne' (1926) de Clarence Brown.

Romney en Fox News Sunday

Romney en las 500 millas de Daytona

A sólo dos días de las primarias de Michigan y Arizona, Mitt Romney ha bajado hasta Florida para presenciar las 500 millas de Daytona, la competición deportiva favorita de muchos republicanos. Allí ha charlado con pilotos de NASCAR y con algunas celebridades, como John Cena y Lenny Kravitz. También ha pasado disimuladamente por delante del coche que patrocina su rival, Rick Santorum.













Santorum causa HORROR en el establishment republicano

The Kansas City Star:
Last week, The Star’s Editorial Board was visited by economist Art Laffer — yes, he of the famous Laffer curve. Most of the meeting dealt with topics other than national politics, but toward the end I asked him whether he thought President Barack Obama would be re-elected.

“No,” he replied immediately.

“Who’s going to do it? Santorum?” I asked, referring to former senator Rick Santorum, who last week was edging Mitt Romney in national polls.

Laffer’s answer was non-verbal. His hands went up on each side of his head. He leaned forward, bug-eyed at the imagined horror of Santorum as the GOP nominee — a response that reflects the fears of many on the Republican side.

Ron Paul en la Central Michigan University

Santorum en This Week (ABC)

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Santorum en Meet The Press (NBC)

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La Gobernadora de Arizona apoya a Romney

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Jan Brewer se ha pronunciado a favor de Romney en Meet The Press (NBC). En asuntos culturales y en lo que se refiere a los ancestrales derechos de los estados, es una de las gobernadoras más derechistas de la Unión: estricta defensora de la familia tradicional y la seguridad fronteriza, tiene el carnet de la National Rifle Association y de la Arizona Rifle and Pistol Association, demandó al gobienro federal por no proteger la frontera, y se unió a otros estados en la demanda contra el ObamaCare por considerarlo inconstitucional.

En este momento, su endorsement es mucho más útil que el de John McCain, para ganar una primaria republicana en Arizona.

Team Romney prevé que las primarias se alarguen hasta mediados de mayo



The New York Times:
Whether Mitt Romney wins or loses the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, his advisers are warning donors and other supporters to prepare for a longer, more bruising and more expensive fight for the Republican presidential nomination that may not be settled until at least May.

That is prompting a new round of intensified fund-raising by his financial team, which had hoped by this point to be collecting money for a general election match with President Obama. The campaign is increasingly trying to quell anxiety among Republican leaders, while intently focusing on the mechanics of accumulating delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Mr. Romney’s aides said they were confident their sustained attacks portraying Rick Santorum as a Washington insider, and Mr. Santorum’s shaky debate performance in Arizona on Wednesday, had slowed their rival’s recent surge here in Michigan.

But Mr. Romney is by no means in the clear, they said, as he fights to avert a loss in the state where he was born and raised — and where less than three weeks ago he was expected to win handily, before Mr. Santorum’s surprise triumphs in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

(...) For many Republicans, the question is not just whether Mr. Romney will eventually capture the nomination, but at what cost.

There is a growing sense among party leaders that the primary fight has gone on long enough and that continued attacks by the candidates and their allies have steered the conversation away from the economy and could damage the party’s prospects in the fall.

(...) Indeed, Mr. Romney’s campaign has warned donors and supporters that even with his victories in the coming contests, the Republican competition may very well last until at least the middle of May. They said the situation did not indicate diminishing prospects for Mr. Romney but rather was the result of the party’s delegate-allocation rules and the additional time those require for any candidate to accumulate the 1,144 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.

The acknowledgment that the intraparty competition will most likely continue into the spring would seem to sweep aside the Romney campaign’s hope that it could string together a series of early victories sufficient to claim the nominee’s mantle — symbolically, at least — and begin focusing exclusively on Mr. Obama.

(...) Even as Mr. Santorum appealed to conservatives for support in Michigan on Saturday, his allies were already advertising on his behalf in the next round of states to vote, another indication of how the candidates are planning to keep trading punches no matter what the outcome is on Tuesday.

In interviews, Mr. Romney’s aides and supporters dismissed that notion of a new entrant, and said their campaign was built to go the distance if necessary.

“We’re just going to have to work a little harder, and this team will do it,” said Mel Sembler, a member of Mr. Romney’s finance team, adding that it would be “ready to supply whatever he needs to win this primary” campaign.

“We’re all on the telephone again,” he said, “and we’re getting it done. It’s just going to take longer.”

Reflecting the unsettled outlook, aides to both Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum are playing down the importance of the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Those contests are preludes to the biggest day of voting in the Republican campaign on March 6, with 10 states and 437 delegates at play on Super Tuesday.

El Gobernador de Maine quiere una convención abierta

El Gobernador Paul LePage, de Maine, un favorito del Tea Party que destaca por hablar muy claro, se ha convertido en el primer gobernador republicano que pide abiertamente una convención abierta que nomine a una "cara nueva." No aclara, sin embargo, si estaría dispuesto a ser esa cara nueva.

The Wall Street Journal:
Gov. Paul LePage, a Maine Republican, said Saturday that the GOP presidential candidates are too “injured’’ by nomination fight and that the party would do better to pick a “fresh face’’ at its national convention in Tampa, Fla.

Mr. LePage, speaking to reporters at a National Governors Association conference, said that the four presidential hopefuls have violated former President Ronald Reagan’s maxim that Republicans should not speak ill of one another.

“It’s been too messy, and I just believe that we ought to go to the convention and pick a fresh face,’’ said Mr. LePage, who was sworn in as governor in January 2011.

He added: “They’ve gone after each other, and I think that the country deserves better than having people stand up and keep criticizing each other.’’

Asked if any of the candidates could beat President Obama in the fall, Mr. LePage sighed and said: “I don’t make predictions; I don’t know. Five dollar gasoline ought to defeat Obama.’’

Mr. LePage said he did not have a specific Republican in mind as an alternative to the four Republicans in the field: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

He said the debates — 20 in all — were so contentious that the party needs to look elsewhere for a viable nominee.

“The debates were just too messy,’’ Mr. LePage said. “Too nasty, too messy. They weren’t on the issues, and I believe a fresh face now that has a good vision for the American dream would really resonate in my mind.’’

ARG: Romney 39%, Santorum 35% en Arizona

American Research Group:



Mitt Romney leads in the Arizona Republican presidential primary with 39%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 35%, Newt Gingrich with 11%, and Ron Paul with 9%.

In a similar survey conducted February 13-14, 2012, Romney was leading with 38%, followed by Santorum with 31%, Gingrich with 15%, and Paul with 11%. Support for Santorum has increased 4 percentage points since the last survey and support for Romney has increased 1 percentage point.

Romney leads Santorum 50% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they have already voted through early voting. Santorum leads Romney 41% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will vote on February 28.

Santorum leads with 44% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34%, Gingrich with 18%, and Paul with 1%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 44%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 18%, and Gingrich with 3%.

Santorum leads Romney 43% to 32% among men, followed by Gingrich with 13% and Paul with 10%. Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women, followed by Gingrich with 9% and Paul with 8%.

Daniels: no soy candidato y no tengo planes de serlo



The Washington Post:
For those Republicans dissatisfied with the current presidential field and looking for a new candidate to jump into the race, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) has an answer:

“It ain’t me.”

Speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the National Governors Association Winter Meeting at the J.W. Marriott hotel in downtown Washington, Daniels acknowledged that he’s gotten some calls from members of his party to enter the race, but he declined to name names.

And he said that those calls haven’t caused him to reconsider his decision not to jump into the presidential fray.

“I wasn’t running, I’m not running, and I don’t plan to run,” he said. “I’d love to have something new to say to y’all, but I just don’t. I’ve felt there are other ways a person can contribute, and I’m trying to do that in other ways. But I’m not a candidate and I’m not planning to be.”

(...) But he has repeatedly dismissed calls to run and when he was asked again Saturday whether anything might change his mind, responded, “That’s one of those hypothetical questions I was trained not to answer.”

“This was never about practicalities or possibilities or any of that,” he said of potentially running for president. “It’s just not something I’ve had an ambition to do or any intention to do. You need more than a little ambition to go through this.”

“The fire in the belly,” one reporter said.

“Well, I’ve got a warm belly about the condition of the country, but not about running, personally,” he said.

“I really believe there’s a great chance for our nominee — presumably one of the current candidates — to win this election,” he said. “I really do. I think the objection condition of the economy will not be helpful at all to the president. Possibly even worse than today. And he has absolutely vacated the field on the most important issues, the ones that are bothering people in my state and elsewhere: a struggling economy and a mountain of debt.”

Ron Paul en Oklahoma City, OK

Romney en el Americans for Prosperity Michigan Forum

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Santorum en el Americans for Prosperity Michigan Forum

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sábado, 25 de febrero de 2012

Santorum se promociona en las carreras de autos de serie

Rick Santorum patrocina el coche del piloto de NASCAR, Tony Raines, que competirá mañana en las 500 millas de Daytona, la Super Bowl del motor. Es una buena manera de hacerse publicidad. Más de 30 millones de estadounidenses suelen seguir la carrera por televisión. Y suele ser un público generalmente blanco, masculino y conservador.



Cómo se determina el tamaño de las delegaciones

ABC News:
Delegates are allotted to states based on two factors. The first is a mathematical formula connected to a state’s congressional districts. For example, California, the state with the largest congressional delegation, also awards the highest number of delegates of any state primary: 172.

The second determining factor is a bit more puzzling to a non-political wonk. In addition to congressional districts, delegate totals are also based on the Republican Party’s influence throughout the particularly state. State’s get “bonus delegates” for hitting various marks; electing a Republican governor, electing a majority of Republican leadership to either chamber of the state’s legislature, electing a Republican senator within the six year period between Jan. 1, 2006 and Dec. 31, 2011, etc.

Bonus delegates are factored into a state’s overall delegate total; they are not distinguished in any way and serve no individual purpose. They are, however, an important key to understanding how the delegate totals are determined, and why the numerical strategies applied to a general election cannot be applied to a primary election.

For example, on March 6, when 10 states hold their voting contests on the day known as “super Tuesday,” Georgia will offer the largest delegate reward. Seventy-six delegates are at stake in Georgia’s contest, 10 more than in the swing state of Ohio, which has 66 delegates total.

Ohio has a larger congressional delegation than Georgia; 16 districts compared with Georgia’s 13. But Georgia has two Republican senators, a Republican governor and Sen. John McCain, as the GOP presidential nominee, won the state in the general election in 2008. Ohio has a Republican governor as well, but only one Republican senator and Barack Obama won that state in 2008. Because of the bonus delegate factor, Georgia wound up with more delegates than Ohio.

"Arlen and Rick" y "Never"

Dos nuevos anuncios anti-Santorum de Romney.

"ARLEN AND RICK"

NARRADOR: "Conozcan a Arlen Specter. Liberal. Republicano pro-aborto convertido en demócrata. El voto decisivo en el ObamaCare. Rick Santorum apoyó a Specter por encima de candidatos conservadores, dos veces."

SENADOR SANTORUM: "Estoy orgulloso de apoyar a Arlen Specter."

NARRADOR: "Santorum y Arlen Specter votaron por (la confirmación) de la juez liberal Sonia Sotomayor. Santorum y Specter se pusieron de parte de los grandes sindicatos contra el derecho al trabajo. Si Rick Santorum no pudo decir que no al liberal Arlen Specter, ¿podemos realmente confiar en él para cambiar Washington?"




"NEVER"

NARRADOR: "¿Está Rick Santorum preparado para ser Presidente? Nunca ha dirigido un negocio. Nunca ha dirigido un estado. Un político de Washington que votó con orgullo por el 'puente a ninguna parte', y por la juez liberal Sonia Sotomayor. Santorum se opuso a crear 'E-Verify', una reforma conservadora para reducir la inmigración ilegal."

GOBERNADOR ROMNEY: "Es un imperativo moral para América dejar de gastar más dinero del que ingresa. Está destruyendo empleos. Washington necesita desesperadamente la experiencia para equilibrar presupuestos, y yo la llevaré."


Santorum en Lincoln Park, Michigan

Ante 150 líderes económicos, el Senador Santorum repasó algunas de las medidas que piensa tomar en sus 100 primeros días como Presidente: eliminar gastos y regulaciones; revocar el ObamaCare; pasar una enmienda a la Constitución para equilibrar el presupuesto; ofrecer deducciones fiscales a las personas que perdieron dinero vendiendo sus casas; sacar al gobierno de la industria hipotecaria; y poner en marcha un agresivo plan de perforaciones de gas y petróleo.

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Gingrich en On The Record (Fox News)

Ron Paul en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

viernes, 24 de febrero de 2012

Romney en el Detroit Economic Club

En su comparecencia ante miembros del Detroit Economic Club, el Gobernador Mitt Romney ha prometido más empleo, menos deuda y un gobierno más pequeño. Ha dicho que quiere ofrecer "más que un simple cambio de políticas" respecto a la actual administración. "Un cambio dramático de perspectiva y filosofía."

Ha propuesto recortar impuestos y gasto: reducir en un 20% la tasa marginal de impuesto a la renta; bajar el impuesto de sociedades al 25%, del 35% actual; eliminar los impuestos sobre las ganancias de capital para personas con ingresos por debajo de los 200,000 dólares; abolir el impuesto mínimo alternativo y el impuesto sucesorio; y reducir el gasto público en un 20%.

También ha propuesto subir la edad de jubilación, para que la Seguridad Social siga siendo solvente, y ajustar la evolución de las jubilaciones de los que más ganan a la inflación en vez de al salario. Además, quiere crear un sistema que permita a los jubilados del futuro optar a planes privados en lugar de usar el Medicare.

En cuanto a la industria automovilística, Romney mantiene que las compañías debieron haber ido a la quiebra ordenadamente y a un proceso de reestructuración, apoyado por capital privado.








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Rasmussen: Romney, en cabeza en Michigan y Arizona

En Michigan:
True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates.
En Arizona:
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in the Arizona Republican Primary race with the vote just four days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney leading Santorum 42% to 29%. The survey, taken after the last scheduled debate of the GOP candidates, finds Romney up three points and Santorum down two from a week ago when it was a 39% to 31% race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with eight percent (8%), marking virtually no change for either man from the previous survey. Only one percent (1%) favors another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

"Your Side"

Team Santorum lanza en Michigan este spot que lo retrata como un candidato que lucha por los intereses de los blue collar workers (trabajadores de fábricas).

NARRADOR: "¿Quién está del lado de los trabajadores de Michigan? No Romney. Él apoyó los rescates de Wall Street mientras daba la espalda a los trabajadores de Michigan. Pero el plan 'hecho en América' de Rick Santorum lo cambia todo; recorta impuestos hasta cero a las compañías manufactureras de Michigan, de modo que podamos traer de vuelta empleos americanos del extranjero; también recorta impuestos a todos los trabajadores; y recorta 5 millones en gasto en cinco años, equilibrando el presupuesto. Rick Santorum. Él lucha por nosotros."

"Saved"

El último spot del Super PAC de Romney, que se emitirá en Michigan y Arizona, pretende resaltar el liderazgo y el carácter personal del candidato, contándonos cómo, cuando dirigía Bain Capital, coordinó personalmente la búsqueda de la hija desaparecida de un socio, hasta encontrarla.

El anuncio es idéntico a uno que ya lanzó Romney hace cuatro años.

ROBERT GAY: "Mi hija de catorce años había desaparecido en la ciudad de Nueva York durante tres días. Nadie pudo encontrarla. Mi socio en los negocios se ofreció para hacerse cargo. Cerró la compañía y llevó a casi todos nuestros empleados a Nueva York. Él dijo, "no me importa cuánto tiempo lleve. Vamos a encontrarla." Montó un centro de mando y la buscó durante la noche. El hombre que ayudó a salvar a mi hija fue Mitt Romney. Mitt ha hecho muchas cosas que la gente dice que son casi imposibles. Pero para mí, la cosa más importante que él ha hecho nunca es ayudar a salvar a mi hija."

Mitchell/Rosetta Stone: Romney 36%, Santorum 33% en Michigan



The New Republic:
Fueled by a strong debate performance Wednesday night, Mitt Romney continues to lead Rick Santorum in the latest Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service) the night after the CNN Debate. The two front runners are still in a statistical dead heat, although Romney (36%) has increased his lead by 1% over Rick Santorum (33%) while Ron Paul (12%) replaced Newt Gingrich (9%) in third place. Undecided voters dropped in half to 11%.

(...) “Romney’s lead seems to have solidified after real volatility over the past two weeks. Romney has made big inroads with conservatives over the past ten days: Santorum’s 16% lead among Tea Party voters has been erased and he is now tied with them; his 16% lead with Evangelical Christians has now been cut in half to 8%, and Santorum’s 31% lead with self-identified “very conservatives” has now been cut to 13%. Romney had to persuade fiscal and social conservatives that he was more conservative than they thought he was. He also had to persuade them that Santorum was not as conservative as Santorum said he was. Romney seems to be accomplishing both those tasks,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

John Garst, President of Rosetta Stone Communications in Atlanta, said “Romney was the clear winner in the debate last night. A third of the voters (33%) said that Romney won compared to only 13% who said Santorum, 10% who said Paul, and 9% who said Gingrich. Almost one in ten voters said they switched their support as a result of the debate. Of those that switched, Romney (27%) was leading Paul (24%), Santorum (22%) and Gingrich (11%). That would explain a slight uptick in Romney’s lead from a survey we conducted Monday night.”

La familia Santorum con Glenn Beck



Continúa: Parte 2

Romney en un evento del Tea Party en Milford, Michigan

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